Global warming

Download PDF version

Wet zones are going dry…

“Wet zones are going dry…that’s why we’re shifting water sports to flood zones, once relief operations finish” the catch phrase of Ajit Ninan’s cartoon in “Just Like That…’ of the Times of India, New Delhi, 08 August 2007 is a bitter satire reminding us of the terrible scourge that global warming is. It is a double edged innuendo too, while mocking sport at the devastating floods that have ravaged India recently and the ongoing relief operations, Ninan cleverly points us, by alluding to the phenomenon of wet lands going dry, to the causal factor of this huge unprecedented disaster, viz. global warming. I am not sure if this has grabbed attention of our policy planners, but it certainly impelled me enough to write this piece.

The Global Risk Network, an initiative of the World Economic Forum, in its Global Risk 2007 Report(1), identified 23 core global risks to international community over the next ten years. These global risks were categorised in economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological domains. A closer study indicates that a total of 9 of these 23 risks (a whopping 39 %), pertain to risks related to climate change, natural, health and climate related disasters, all in the environmental and societal domains. Clearly, the forecast places climate change and environmental degradation as the leading global risks, and as the frontrunner of all causes exacerbating disasters.

The report also places global warming as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century- and as a global risk with impacts far beyond just the environment. Global warming is at the root of climate changes(2) and increase in the incidents of natural disasters in the last few years.  A ten-year climate prediction model developed by the Hadley Research Center of the UK Meteorological Office, predicts that the world is warming up faster than at any time in the past 100 years. It shows that global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, at least half of the years 2009 to 2014 will be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record. And the research predicts 2014 to be 0.3C warmer globally than 2004 and that by 2015 global temperatures will be 0.5C above the average value for the last 30 years(3). This is a sharp increase, as the average global temperature has risen by only 0.8C since 1900. Carbon emissions have also grown above trend, and there are indicators that feedback mechanisms, particularly increased heat absorption caused by Arctic ice melt, will increase the speed and scale of warming.

This paper analyses the scourge the global warming is and propounds few mitigation measures for climate change and recommendations on how emergency managers could address the warming climate.

The Global Warming Frying Pan…

Global warming is literally the warming of our planet caused by the steadily thickening blanket of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants that are building up in the atmosphere. This blanket of hot house gases traps the sun’s heat causing the planet to warm up. Coal burning power plants are the largest source of CO2 pollution and produce 2.5 billion tons every year. Automobiles, the second largest source, create nearly 1.5 billion tons of CO2 annually. Amongst countries, the US emits more CO2 than China, India and Japan combined. There have been a number of global initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, most significant of them being the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. While the physical science of global warming is clearly understood, what is not readily fathomed is the unique hazard that global warming is - a unique hazard not at all in the context of other hazards. It is regrettably viewed by policy makers and even emergency managers as a secondary hazard to hazards such as floods, earthquakes, coastal hazards, landslides etc. With clear manifestations these natural hazards, invite more attention by the scientific community, the people and the policy makers. Global warming has no clear and immediate manifestations, and the effects would be forthcoming in increments of years rather than minutes, hours or days as for natural hazards. In this world of time compression and reducing attention spans, only the most obvious, immediate and easily understood grabs attention and focus, notwithstanding the long term gravity. Not viewing global warming as a unique hazard is counter productive, and not only masks the problem but clouds the search for risk reduction measures and points risk analysis in the wrong direction.

A potpourri of new risks…The global warming frying pan is cooking a potpourri of new risks for humanity and this planet. It is changing our world dramatically and generating new risks. Many parts of the world have suffered major heat waves, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events. A number of experts link the current trend in extreme weather events with the increase in the global mean temperature. While individual events such as El-Niño related phenomenon cannot be directly linked to human induced climate change, the frequency and magnitude of these types of events are predicted to increase in a warmer world. The changes in global mean temperatures are very likely to affect parameters such as precipitation patterns, wind velocities, soil moisture and vegetation cover which appear to influence the occurrence of storms, hurricanes, floods drought and landslides(4).

Increasing natural disaster events…. A global review of the statistics of disasters by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Diseases (CRED) indicates that natural disasters are increasing in terms of frequency, complexity, scope and destructive capacity. The cascading increase in natural disasters is directly attributed to the global warming induced environmental degradation and global climate change(5). A comparison of the 2006 with 2005 and 2000-2004 averages of natural disaster occurrences illustrates this:

The statistics indicates a large increase in the frequency of floods and related disasters, an increase of 43% compared to the 2000-04 average and of 23% compared to 2005. Though the figures for the geological and the drought and related disasters do not show major variations, the increase in the flood and related events are clearly attributable to global warming induced climate change, as the report surmises. The reduction of windstorms in 2006 is also attributable to other unrelated seasonal factors. Amongst regions, the report indicates that Asia remained the region most hit by natural disasters with 187 reported natural disasters (44% of 2006 all natural disasters) in 2006. Asia incidentally is also the continent housing the majority of the developing nations and generates a large share of green house gases. The correlation of the increase in disaster events with the global warming is direct.

The melting Arctic Sea and rising sea levels… on 9 August 2007 the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area broke the record for the lowest ice area observed in history. The new record (3.98 million sq. km) is a month before the annual summer minimum (usually occuring in September). There is still a month or more of melt and it is therefore almost certain that the previous 2005 record (4.01 million sq. km) will not just be broken, but annihilated by the final 2007 annual minima. In previous recorded sea ice minima years, ice area anomalies were confined to certain sectors (N. Atlantic, Beaufort/Bering Sea, etc.). This year the character of 2007's sea ice melt is unique in that it is dramatic and covers the entire Arctic sector - the Atlantic, Pacific and even the central Arctic sectors are showing large negative sea ice area anomalies(6). The current summer ice cover in the northern hemisphere is averaging 25-30 percent below what it was 50 years ago. Clearly the Arctic Ocean is absorbing a lot of heat and the overall trend is related to global warming. Melting sea ice, glaciers and ice caps will lead to rising sea levels which in turn would lead to coastal flooding all around the globe. Also warmer sea surface temperatures will fuel more cyclones and hurricanes, especially in the south eastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Further forest, farms and cities could also face troublesome new pests and more mosquito borne diseases. Disruptions of habitats such as coral reefs etc could drive many plant and animal species to extinction.

50 million more may go hungry…In the British Association Science Conference held in Dublin in Sep 2005, scientists predicted that about 50 million more people, most of them in Africa, could be at risk of hunger by 2050, due to climate change and reduced crop yields. Roughly about 500 million people worldwide already face hunger, but rising sea levels could make the problem worse(7). The greatest proportion about 3/4th will be in Africa. In the conference it was also agreed that it would take huge reduction in green house gases - about 20 times more than those required by Kyoto protocol - to avoid the additional risk of hunger(8).

Abrupt climate change? Gradual global warming triggers sudden shift in the earth’s climate, and may cause parts of the world to dramatically heat up or cool down in the span of a few years. If it happens one can easily understand the catastrophe that would occur. This possibility of abrupt climate change has been investigated recently by researchers and found great acceptance as a very likely possibility.

National security at threat?    In a worst case scenario, global warming could make large areas of the world uninhabitable and cause massive food and water shortages, sparking widespread migrations and war.  Far fetched as it may seem, this was indeed the deduction made by consultants to the Pentagon in a study conducted who released a report(9) laying out the possible impacts of climate change on national security.

Manifest effects…increasing extreme weather events. While this prospect of threat to national security remains highly speculative, many of global warming effects are already being observed and felt. In 2003 for example extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe and more than 1,500 deaths in India. The greatest alarming events to come, as regarded by scientists is that the area of the Arctic’s perennial polar ice cap is declining at the rate of 9 % per decade. Similarly of the Himalayan glaciers are ‘retreating’ and the snow peaks in Tibet and Central Asia are baring. Some of the Himalayan glaciers feed major river systems of Northern India, which could have catastrophic impact on the life and economy of the Indian sub continent. The idea that such extreme change is possible underscores the urgent need to start cutting global warming pollution.

Gloom and doom, is there a glimmer of hope?

Undoubtedly there is increasingly conclusive evidence, which confirms that global climate change will have an impact on the occurrence and magnitude of extreme events. These impacts are envisaged to increase human vulnerability to natural disasters, thus emphasising the need for improved measures of preparedness in every part of the world.

But what can be done to prevent this or to adapt to it? 

The human decision making conundrum… A stark and fundamental environmental reality that we cannot ignore and that confronts us is that six billion people are living on our planet. This population of 6 billion people (it is still climbing!) is exacerbating the demand on resources and services, and increasing the generation of wastes to meet many of these demands. The decisions made by these six billion people determine the quality of the environment and the patterns of settlement, energy and material use, waste generation, agriculture, and travel-among many other activities-of these six billion decision makers will determine the future of the environment. So what decisions can we make? Can a consensus be reached amongst the 6 billion people? Regrettably our environment science agenda focuses most of its resources, perhaps 90%, not on the principal agent of environmental destruction and change (that is, people) or those who will make decisions about how to address such destruction and change (again, people), but on the affected environmental systems themselves. The agenda concentrates on undemanding the basic physical, chemical and biological systems operating on the planet, and their interactions. The agenda addresses to a considerably lesser extent the ways that humans affect these systems, and the social, cultural, political, economic determinants of those human effects. Until we direct our research efforts more closely to align with an understanding of the actual causes of environment change- that is, the decisions of the six billion people- we are not going to create the knowledge we need to help us more towards a sustainable global society.

Simple solutions and not complex treaties could achieve wonders... Technologies exist today to make cars that run cleaner and burn less gas, modernize power plants and generate electricity from non polluting sources, and cut our electricity use through energy efficiency. The challenge is to be sure these solutions are put to use. Domestic lighting, for instance, could be more easily targeted for energy savings than changing the design of multi-million dollar coal fired power plant. Only single six billion steps could add up to zillions of eco-friendly miles…if six billion people decide to change a light bulb it could lead to a more energy efficient life. A compact fluorescent lamp used instead of an incandescent bulb keeps nearly 700 pounds of CO2 out of the air over the bulb’s lifetime, besides saving the electricity bill. Yet experience shows that the cheapest sources of abatement are among the most difficult for policy makers to get at.

Emergency management tools…we could applying the unique set of tools of emergency managers to the problem - hazard identification, risk analysis, mitigation, and training, and that emergency management applies to disaster events(earthquakes, floods and terrorism etc).  If we accept the hazard, we can determine the risk, mitigate where possible and prepare, respond and recover where we cannot mitigate, and lastly exercise to understand the impacts and propose risk reduction measures.  These tried and true capabilities of emergency management are as relevant to climate change as to other risks that emergency managers address.
 
Hazard Identification.  First of all we must accept climate change as a primary hazard.  Not accepting climate change and all of the accompanying secondary hazards will not make it go away.  There is already clear consensus among the scientific community that the climate is changing, and that major organisations including the Pentagon etc and major property and causality insurance companies are developing mitigation strategies. As people we need to accept that we too are responsible. For millions of years we have been putting heat trapping carbon molecules into our atmosphere, which are trapping heat, trapping energy.  High school physics and the ‘first law of the thermodynamics’ teaches us that energy creates work, and with all of this new energy added to the atmosphere, it doesn’t take a scientist to see a near future with an increase in the number and strength of high energy events, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods etc, and that at certain thresholds, ice melts, living things die, sea level rises to a point where a port is flooded, ocean currents change etc.

Risk Analysis. Risk is a function of the hazard (the change), vulnerability (impact, consequence) and capabilities (available tools and approaches).  What is the risk here?  Beginning with the hazard, we need to address global warming for what it is, a unique hazard and not within the context of other hazards.  The impact is clear… melting of the few remaining glaciers, reducing snow fall and snow accumulation, increasing winter discharges and reducing summer flows. What are the capabilities and the available tools to reduce the impact? Reduction of greenhouse gases, new technologies, reducing vulnerabilities, reducing the consequences of hazards etc; Communities must accept this new change. 

Mitigate …mitigation is the corner stone of emergency managementand where one cannot mitigate, respond and recover. Effective mitigation of climate change will have the consequence of improving sustainability, whereas ineffective mitigation will certainly be a factor in major interstate and civil wars in the next 50 years. A range of public and private mitigation measures are critical both in the immediate term and over the long term to address global warming. Some simple measures could be:

• Raise awareness of the impacts of climate change, particularly in the developed world, build public support for mitigation, and change the mindset of people, altering their behaviour which would produce considerable mitigation.

• Allow transfer of technologies which may help reduce climate change, or mitigate its impacts.

• Expand market mechanisms which encourage innovation, reward efficiency and ease the development of insurance and other financial tools to manage risks inherent in emissions’ reduction projects.

• Create strong incentive structures and provide research funds to foster ‘breakthrough technologies’ as hydrogen fuel cells or advanced thin film photovoltaics, particularly in the power-generation sector.

• Identify more efficient processes; improve cost-effective reductions in emissions at the business and domestic level.

• Carry out and improve strategic assessments of long-term vulnerabilities due to climate change.

• Encourage long-term adaptation in countries where impacts of climate change are most likely to be felt, by increasing adaptation aid and creating financial structures to leverage global capacities.

Training and Exercises:  Reduction of risk can be achieved by focusing on identifying and reducing the adverse impacts. Exercises could be developed to test approaches and identify adverse impacts and mitigation measures. We need to develop a climate change scenario for community and conduct table top exercises with all stakeholders. Exercises for disaster events are phased for preparedness, response and recovery, phases which occur fairly quickly in matter of days, maybe months. With global warming the event has already begun, and effects would manifest in years, so we need to phase the exercise in 5-7 year increments and develop scenarios accordingly.

Climate change need not be a political football field. Climate change has somehow become a political agenda amongst many countries especially with a number of treaties and protocols being drafted. There is great political jugglery here (the US refuses to sign the Kyoto Protocol, as it would severely restrict its industries and affect economy, but insists on developing countries to do so), which serves no purpose to the 6 billion people on the planet. The global community must come together to address the terrible scourge that global warming is. The evidence is all-around us and we have the capabilities, expertise and experience to reduce this risk.   Notwithstanding, we need to involve major developing countries in new frameworks for limiting future emissions’ growth (particularly China and India). We also need to urgently begin work on a successor to the Kyoto agreement with three central principles- involvement of the US and major developing countries, differential responsibilities for future emissions’ reduction dependent upon past emissions and stage of economic development, and common overall responsibility for climate change.